Kune makona epasi ayo, kana achionekwa pamepu, anoita seasina basa, asi mukuita kwawo ndeechokwadi zvechokwadi. nzvimbo dzetsinga dzehurongwa hwenyikaNzira yeHormuz ndiyo muenzaniso wakanaka: nzira diki yemvura ine kukosha kunopfuura kukura kwayo. Kubva kunze, ingangoita seimwe nzira yekufambisa ngarava, asi zvinoitika mumvura dzayo zvine chekuita zvakananga nemari, simba, uye kugadzikana kwehupfumi kwehafu yepasi rose.
Muchikamu ichi chinoparadzanisa Iran neOman, vanoyambuka jogirafi, nhoroondo, mafuta, gasi uye masimba makuru ehondoNhau padzinotaura nezvekusawirirana muStrait of Hormuz, misika inodedera, mitengo yemafuta asina kucheneswa inokwira, uye makambani ekutakura zvinhu anofungisisa patsva nzira dzawo. Kunzwisisa kuti sei gwagwa iri richikosha hakusi kungoda kuziva nezvenyika chete: kunotibatsira kunzwisisa mashandiro ehupfumi hwenyika uye kuti nei chero chinhu chiripo munzvimbo iyi chichigona kukwidza mutengo wepeturu, magetsi, kana chikafu kure nemakiromita zviuru.
Nzvimbo uye hunhu hwenzvimbo yeStrait of Hormuz
Nzira yeHormuz ndiyo nzira yegungwa iri pakati pePersian Gulf neGulf of Omanizvo zvinozobatanawo ne Indian OceanInoshanda senzira yekupinda kwese kwePersian Gulf basin kuenda kune dzimwe nyika, zvichiita kuti ive nzvimbo yekufambiswa kwesimba remagetsi akawanda munharaunda iyi.
Kubva pakuona kwemakatuni, gwara iri riri pakati pe 26° ne27° kuchamhembe kwelatitude uye 56° ne57° kumabvazuva kwelongitudeKuchamhembe, inoganhurana nedunhu reIran reHormozgan; kumaodzanyemba, yakaganhurirwa neMusandam Peninsula, nzvimbo yeSultanate of Oman yakaparadzaniswa nenyika yese neUnited Arab Emirates. Nemamwe mashoko, tiri kutarisana nenzvimbo iyo vanhu vakawanda vane zvido zvakanyanya vanopindirana.
Panyaya yehukuru, mugwagwa wacho unenge uri pamusoro Makiromita 190 uye upamhi hunobva pamakiromita angangoita makumi mashanu nematanhatu panzvimbo yayo yakafara kusvika kutenderedza Makiromita makumi matatu nematatu panzvimbo yakamanikana kwazvoZvingaita sekuti kune nzvimbo yakawanda, asi chokwadi chekushanda chakasiyana zvikuru: nzvimbo inofambiswa nengarava huru idiki zvikuru.
Kufamba kwemotokari kunorongwa kuburikidza ne Chirongwa Chekuparadzanisa Mugwagwa (TSS) Yatenderwa neInternational Maritime Organisation, sisitimu iyi inoisa nzira mbiri dzekufambisa, imwe neimwe ine upamhi hwemakiromita maviri egungwa, yakaparadzaniswa nenzvimbo yekuchengetedza yemakiromita maviri egungwa. Mukuita, matangi makuru emafuta neanotakura gasi anofamba mukati menzira inoshanda yemakiromita matanhatu egungwa munzira yakamanikana kare.
Kudzika kwemvura ndicho chimwe chinhu chakakosha: Strait of Hormuz ine simba rakakwana rekubvumira kupfuura kwemvura. matangi makuru kwazvo (VLCCs) uye kutakura gasi rechisikigo rakanyungudutswa pasina zvipingamupinyi zvechigarire zvekuvaka. Kusanganiswa uku kwekudzika kwakakwana nenzvimbo diki kunogadzira huwandu hwakawanda hwemotokari mukoridho yakamanikana zvakanyanya, zvichiwedzera kukosha kwenzvimbo yacho.
Nzira yenhoroondo inokwikwidzwa nemadzimambo nemasimba
Kare kare asati ava mukuru Dambudziko resimba rezana remakore rechi21Nzira yeHormuz yaitove nzira inofarirwa zvikuru. Kubva kare, mvura dzinobatanidza Persian Gulf neIndian Ocean dzave dziri nzvimbo yekukakavadzana pakati pevaPersia, vaRoma, maOttoman, maPutukezi, nemaBritish, pakati pevamwe. Zvaisangova zvekudzora kutengeserana kwenzvimbo chete, asi zvaireva kutonga nzira yaibvumira kusvika kumisika iri kure nezviwanikwa.
Nekukwira kwemari yakawanda ye mafuta negesi muPersian Gulf Muzana remakore rechi20 rose, basa rayo rakakwira zvakanyanya. Dunhu reGulf, rine mahombekombe eIran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, neOman, rine zvimwe zvezviwanikwa zvesimba guru pasi rose. Mugwagwa uyu wakazova, chaizvoizvo, nzira yekupinda zviwanikwa izvi kuAsia, Europe, neAmerica.
Kuvapo kwemasimba ekunze kwematunhu kwakaramba kuripo. Kutanga, United Kingdom, uye gare gare, United States neFifth Fleet yayoVakasimbisa kuvapo kwavo muhondo vachifunga nezvekuvimbisa rusununguko rwekufamba netsoka uye kuchengetedzeka kwesimba repasi rose. Panguva imwe chete, Iran yakasimbisa basa rayo semutambi akakosha nekuda kwekutonga kwayo mahombekombe ekuchamhembe.
Kuma1980, panguva ye Hondo yeIran neIraqMugwagwa wegungwa wakatanga kupindira mune inonzi "hondo yengarava dzehondo." Nyika dzese dziri mbiri dzakarwisa ngarava dzechitatu kuti dzimanikidze makwikwi ehupfumi. United States yakazopedzisira yaperekedza ngarava dzehondo dzekuKuwait mumabasa makuru engarava dzehondo kubvira paHondo Yenyika II, zvichiratidza kuti hapana hurumende yaida kuona kuti nzira iyoyo yavharwa kusvika papi.
Iyi nhoroondo inotsanangura kuti nei gakava redunhu—ringave riri pakati peIran nevavakidzani vayo, kana pakati peIran nemasimba ekunze akadai seUnited States kana Israel—richingoerekana raitika. migumisiro muStrait of HormuzNhoroondo yegwagwa guru, zvikuru, inhoroondo yekurwisana kwekudzora kufamba kwezviwanikwa zvepasi zvakanyanya.
Hormuz semutsinga wesimba wepasi rose: mafuta negasi
Kana paine chokwadi chimwe chete chinobatsira kutsanangura kuti sei munhu wese achitarisa kuHormuz, ndeichi: vanhu vanosvika [nhamba] imwe chete vanofamba nemumvura yaro. pakati pechikamu chimwe muzvishanu nechikamu chimwe muzvina chekutengeserana kwemafuta emugungwa pasi roseMuna 2025, fungidziro kubva kumasangano akaita seEIA neIEA dzinoisa kuyerera kwemafuta asina kucheneswa pamabhareni angangoita mamiriyoni 19,8-20 pazuva (mb/d) emafuta asina kucheneswa nezvinhu zvakacheneswa.
Pahuwandu ihwohwo, hunenge 15 mb/d inoenderana nemafuta asina kucheneswa uye manyuchiKunyange hazvo mabara anosvika mamiriyoni mashanu pazuva (mb/d) ari zvigadzirwa zvakanatswa (peturu, dhiziri, mafuta emafuta, nezvimwewo). Saudi Arabia, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Iran, Kuwait, neQatar ndizvo zvinonyanya kutengeswa. Muchokwadi, huwandu hwese hwezvinhu zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika kubva kuPersian Gulf Basin hunoenderana nedanho iri.
Neimwe nzira, kupfuura Mabhareni 830.000 paawaKudzikiswa kwe10% kwemotokari dzinotengeswa nemotokari zvinoreva kubvisa mabara anosvika mamiriyoni maviri pazuva (mb/d) pamusika, nhamba inoenzana nekugadzirwa kwese kwenyika dzinoverengeka dziri kutengesa kunze kwenyika. Huwandu uhwu hwakakura zvekuti chero kukanganiswa kwenguva refu kunoratidzwa pakarepo mumitengo yepasi rose.
Asi oiri haisiriyo yega inoyerera ichipinda imomo. Mugero weHormuz unotendererawo 19-20% yekutengeserana kwegasi rechisikigo rakanyungudutswa (LNG) pasi rose, kunyanya kubva kuQatar, imwe yemakambani makuru anotumira kunze kwenyika, uye kuUnited Arab Emirates. Inopfuura 90% yemafuta emagetsi eQatar anodiwa kuti abude nemumugwagwa uyu.
Musika weLNG hauna kusimba zvakanyanya pane musika wemafuta asina kucheneswa: ngarava dzekutakura LNG dzakagadzirwa nehunyanzvi, zvivakwa zvekugadzira mvura nekugadzira gasi zviri munzvimbo dzakasiyana-siyana, uye zvibvumirano zvinowanzo kuve zvenguva refu. Izvi zvinoreva kuti Zvakaoma zvikuru kutamisa mabhuku iwayo kana nzira yacho ikavharika kana kuti mari yekubatsira vanhu ikakwira zvakanyanya.
Kuwanda kwevanhu vanofamba mugungwa uye njodzi dzekushanda
Vanhu vanenge [vasipo] vanoyambuka Strait of Hormuz mwedzi wega wega. Ngarava zviuru zvitatu dzemarudzi eseIzvi zvinoreva kuti ngarava dzinotakura mafuta dzeVLCC neSuezmax dzinofamba netsoka dzinopfuura zana zuva nezuva, ngarava dzinotakura mafuta, ngarava dzinotakura zvinhu, nedzimwe ngarava dzinotakura zvinhu. Zvese izvi zviri mukati menzira inofamba nengarava ine upamhi hwemakiromita matanhatu egungwa.
Musanganiswa iwoyo wehukuru hwakakura nenzvimbo diki zvinogadzira Kuwanda kwekushanda kwakanyanyaSisitimu iyi inoshanda chero bedzi kufamba kwemvura kuri kuramba kuchienderera mberi uye kuchigoneka. Asi kana ongororo dzikawedzera, matanho ekuchengetedza akawedzerwa, kana zviitiko zvakasiyana zvikaitika, kugona kwayo kushanda kunoderera, zvichiita kuti pave nerudzi rwe "kuzara kwemotokari mugungwa."
Masangano akaita seUNCTAD anoona Hormuz kwete senzvimbo inongoda simba chete asiwo senzvimbo yekubatsira kubatana kwakakosha mu network dzekutengeserana pasi roseChero kukanganiswa kupi zvako kunogona kumanikidza kugadziriswa kwemafambiro, kuwedzera mari yekutakura zvinhu, kugadzirisa mafona echiteshi, uye kuchinja kuwanikwa kwezvikepe mune dzimwe nzira pasi rose.
Maitiro aya ekusagadzikana akaonekwa mune dzimwe nzira dzemvura dzakakosha. Strait of Malacca, Suez Canal, uye Panama Canal zvinoshandawo senzvimbo dzinopisa, asi hapana imwe ine huwandu hwakawanda hwehydrocarbons. Kuenzanisa huwandu hwemafuta hunopfuura nenzira yega yega kunoratidza.
Vari muMalacca vanofamba-famba 16 mb/d yemafuta asina kucheneswa uye zvigadzirwaSuez Canal neSUMED pombi pamwe chete zvinobata mabara angangoita mamiriyoni 8,8-9 pazuva (mb/d). Migero yeBab el-Mandeb inosvika 6-6,5 mb/d. Pasi apa pane nzira dzakadai seDanish neTurkish straits, kana kuti Panama Canal. Hormuz iri pamusoro, ine angangoita 20 mb/d, kureva, mafuta akawanda kupfuura chero imwe nzira pasi rose.
Kuenzanisa nezvimwe zvipingamupinyi zvehurongwa
Kuti munhu anzwisise kukura kwacho, anongoda kurangarira zvimwe zviitiko munguva pfupi yapfuura mune dzimwe nzvimbo dzakakosha. Muna 2021, mudziyo mukuru waizovepo. Ever Given yakanyura mumvura muSuez Canal Kwemazuva matanhatu, kutengeserana kwepasi rose kwakamira zvishoma, zvinhu zvinosvika mabhiriyoni gumi emadhora zvichikanganiswa zuva nezuva. Uye dambudziko iri raive risiri rehondo chaiyo, asi tsaona yekushanda.
Munyaya ye Panama CanalKushomeka kwemvura kwakabatana nekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze kwakaderedza huwandu hwengarava dzinobvumidzwa kuyambuka, zvichikonzera kunonoka uye kuwedzera nguva yekufambisa uye mari yekutumira. Iyi mienzaniso yekuti danho rimwe chete rinogona sei kukanganisa cheni dzepasi rose dzekugovera.
Nzira yeHormuz ine hunhu hwe "chokepoint", asi ine musiyano mukuru: pano Ehe, zvido zve geostrategic uye makwikwi emauto anopindirana.Hatisi kungotarisana nedambudziko rehunyanzvi kana rezvakatipoteredza chete; tiri kutaura nezvemamiriro ezvinhu apo masimba edunhu (Iran, Saudi Arabia, Emirates, Qatar) nemasimba epasi rose (United States, China, zvishoma Russia neEuropean Union) anodyidzana.
Zvinotonyanya kuipa ndezvekuti, dzimwe nzira dzekushandisa mafuta eGulf dzakashomeka zvikuru. Kune mapaipi mashoma anobvumira kunzvenga zvishoma HormuzAsi simba radzo rose pamwe chete harisi pedyo ne20 mb/d iyo inowanzo yambuka strait.
Saudi Arabia inoshandisa pombi yemafuta yekumabvazuva-kumadokero (Petroline), iyo inobatanidza Abqaiq neYanbu paGungwa Dzvuku uye munguva pfupi yapfuura yakawedzera kugona kwayo kusvika kumabara anokwana mamiriyoni manomwe pazuva (mb/d), kunyangwe mukuita kwayo chikamu chimwe chete chesimba iroro chingavepo kana paine emergency. United Arab Emirates ine Paipi yemafuta asina kuchena yeAbu Dhabi (ADCOP), iyo inobatanidza minda iri mumahombekombe nechiteshi cheFujairah muGulf of Oman, ine simba re1,8 mb/d.
Iran, iyo pachayo, yakagadzira pombi yemafuta Goreh-Jask uye nzvimbo yeJask sechirongwa chekutengesa mafuta asina kuchekwa kugungwa reOmani pasina kupfuura nemuStrait of Hormuz. Zvisinei, pasinei nekutumirwa kwekuyedzwa pakupera kwa2024, zvivakwa zvichiri kushanda, uye nekudaro hazvisi nzira inoshanda nhasi. Kunyangwe nekushandiswa kwakanyanya kwemapaipi eSaudi neEmirati, mukaha wemabhareni anopfuura mamiriyoni gumi pazuva waizoramba usina nzira inoshanda kana Strait of Hormuz yaizovharwa zvachose.
Nyika dzepasi rose: Iran, United States, uye bhodhi remutambo wechesi repasi rose
Nzvimbo yeStrait of Hormuz yakabatana zvikuru ne chikamu chezvematongerwo enyika nehondoChikamu chekuchamhembe chestrait ndecheIran, nepo mahombekombe ekumaodzanyemba achitongwa neOman neUnited Arab Emirates. Mitemo yeUnited Nations inobvumira nyika kuti dzizvitonge kusvika makiromita gumi nemaviri kubva kumahombekombe adzo, saka muchikamu chakamanikana, nzira dzekutakura ngarava dziri mukati memvura yeIran neOmani.
Mutemo uyu unopa Tehran chinzvimbo chakasimba. Nguva dzakawanda, Iran yakaita vakatyisidzira kuvhara kana kukanganisa traffic nekuda kwezvirango zvehupfumi, mashandiro ehondo, kana kumanikidzwa kwezvematongerwo enyika kubva kuUnited States nevatsigiri vayo. Kunyangwe pasina kuita zvizere kuvharwa kwehurumende, kungowedzera mukana wekuti mafuta akwire nekukurumidza.
United States, iyo pachayo, ine zvikepe zvemugungwa zvakawanda munzvimbo iyi—kunyanya kuburikidza ne Chikepe Chechishanu— nechinangwa chakataurwa chekuvimbisa rusununguko rwekufamba nengarava uye kudzivirira chero kuedza kwekuvhara ngarava. Munguva yeHondo yeIran neIraq muma1980, Washington yakatoratidza kuda kwayo kuperekedza ngarava dzehondo uye kupindura nemauto pakurwiswa kwengarava dzekutengeserana.
Mumamiriro ezvinhu achangopfuura, akaratidzwa nekusawirirana kwakanyanya pakati Nyika dzeAmerica, Israeri neIranMugwagwa uyu wave zvakare nzvimbo inonyanya kukosheswa. Kurwiswa kwenzvimbo dzenyukireya dzeIran, kurwisana kwemauto akasiyana, uye kutyisidzirana kwakadzosa Strait of Hormuz pamberi penhau dzepamusoro uye, chinonyanya kukosha, kuratidzwa kwevashandi vemagetsi.
China inopinda muchikamu ichi senyika inonyanya kutenga simba kubva kunze kwenyika. Ndiyo inotenga mafuta asina kucheneswa muIran uye ndiyo imwe yenzvimbo huru dzekutengesa mafuta neLNG dzinoyambuka mugwagwa uyu. Saka, Washington yakakumbira Beijing pachena kuti iite izvi. Shandisa simba rako kudzivirira kuvharwa kwemotokariVakataura kuti kuvharirwa kwacho kwaizova "kuzviuraya kwehupfumi" kune avo vanonyanya kuvimba nemafambiro iwayo, kutanga neIran pachayo nevatengi vayo vakuru vekuAsia.
Iran ingaedza sei kuvhara Strait of Hormuz
Imwe yemibvunzo inogara ichibvunzwa mumatambudziko aripo munharaunda iyi ndeyekuti, sei chaizvo, Iran ingagona here kuvharira strait?Nyanzvi dzinotaura nezvenzira dzakasiyana-siyana dzekushandisa. Imwe yenzira dzinoshanda zvikuru ndeyekushandisa zvimbambaira zvemugungwa zvakaiswa kubva muzvikepe zvinomhanya kana ngarava dzepasi pemvura mumigwagwa yekufambisa, zvichimanikidza vanhu kumira kusvika nzvimbo yacho yacheneswa.
Ngarava dzehondo dzeIran dzenguva dzose, pamwe chete nemauto ehondo kubva ku Mauto eIslamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)Inewo zvikepe zvekufamba-famba zvine zvombo zvinorwisa ngarava, zvikepe zvepanyika, zvikepe zvinonyudzwa mumvura zvishoma, uye ngarava dzepasi pemvura dzinogona kushungurudza ngarava dzemafuta nengarava dzehondo. Kurwiswa zvakananga kana kutyisidzira kwakavimbika kwaizokwana kudzivirira makambani mazhinji ekutakura zvinhu kuti asapinde munzvimbo iyi.
Zvisinei, nzira idzi dzinenge dziine muenzaniso wadzo: Ngarava dzehondo huru dzeIran dzaizoonekwa senzvimbo dzinonangwa Kune ndege dzeUS nedzimwe nyika dzinodyidzana nendege nezvombo zvinokandwa, nzira yacho ingave yakaoma, nepo zvikepe zvinomhanya nezvikepe zvidiki zvichizotarisana nemauto akakwirira zvikuru mune zvetekinoroji. Vaongorori vazhinji vanobvumirana kuti Iran inogona kukanganisa zvakanyanya kufamba kwendege kwenguva yakati, asiwo kuti mubatanidzwa wepasi rose unokwanisa kudzorera kufamba, zvichida zvichikonzera kuwedzera kukuru kwemauto.
Kutaura zvazviri, mukupera kwema80, panguva yehondo ye "tangi rematangi," United States yakatotora matanho ekuchengetedza nzira yakavhurika, ichiisazve ngarava dzekuKuwait mumigodhi uye ichironga ngarava dzehondo. Chiitiko ichi chinosimudzira pfungwa yekuti Kuvharwa zvachose uye kwenguva refu hakugoneki. kuIran, mune zvehondo uye zvehupfumi, tichifunga kuti nyika pachayo inofanira kutengesa kunze kwenyika zvigadzirwa zvemafuta asina kucheneswa uye simba kuti izviwane mari.
Ndosaka nyanzvi zhinji - pamwe chete nemanzwi ari munharaunda yacho pachayo - vachiti Tehran ine "zvakawanda zvekurasikirwa nazvo pane kuwana" mukuvharirwa kwenguva refu, sezvo iri panjodzi yekuparadzanisa vavakidzani vayo vanogadzira zvinhu nevatengi vayo vakuru, China, pamwe nekukurudzira mauto epasi rose kuita chimwe chinhu chakaoma kudzora.
Kukanganiswa kwenyika yese kwekuvhara kana kukanganiswa kwemugwagwa wegungwa
Kana mamiriro ezvinhu e kuvharwa kunobudirira kweStrait of HormuzVaongorori vanobvumirana kuti tichange tichitarisana nekukanganiswa kusati kwamboitika mumusika wesimba munguva dzazvino. Kuenzanisa nehondo muUkraine kunoratidza zvakajeka: kupinda kweRussia kwakaisa mabara anosvika mamiriyoni matatu pazuva (mb/d) emafuta asina kucheneswa panjodzi, izvo zvakaita kuti mutengo webara rimwe ukwire neanopfuura 50% mumavhiki mashoma chete. Kukanganiswa muStrait of Hormuz kunogona kukanganisa kusvika 20 mb/d.
Muhondo yakaitika munguva pfupi yapfuura, kuvharirwa kwemugwagwa wakaoma kwakaita kuti Brent crude ichadarika $100 pabhareriUye kana mafuta asina kucheneswa ekuUS akasvika padanho rakafanana, zvaizokonzera kukwira kwemitengo yemagetsi uye zvaizowedzera kumanikidzwa pamitengo yekufambisa, magetsi, uye, nekudaro, zvinhu zvakawanda zvinotengeswa nevanhu. Nemabhiriyoni mamiriyoni makumi maviri pazuva ari panjodzi, njodzi yekuwedzera kwemitengo iri pachena.
Migumisiro yacho haingafanani. Nyika dzakadai sedzimwe China, India, Japan, kana South Korea —iyo inonyanya kuvimba nemafuta asina kuchekwa anosvika kubva kuGulf neStrait of Hormuz— yaizonyanya kukanganiswa. Zvinofungidzirwa kuti muna 2024 inenge 84% yemafuta asina kuchekwa uye condensate inopfuura nepakati pestrait yaiendeswa kumisika yeAsia, uye inoda kusvika 83% yeLNG yakaendawo kunzvimbo iyoyo.
Hupfumi huri kusimukira hunovimba zvakanyanya neLNG, senge Bangladesh, India, kana PakistanVanonyanya kukanganiswa. Muna 2025, inenge zvikamu zviviri muzvitatu zvegasi rechisikigo ravanotenga rakanyudzwa rakayambuka Strait of Hormuz. Munyika dzakadai seBangladesh nePakistan, gasi rinoita kuti magetsi asvike 50% uye 25% agadziriswe, saka kukanganiswa kwenguva refu kunogona kukonzera kudzimwa kwemagetsi, kukwira kwemitengo yemagetsi, uye kusagadzikana kwevanhu.
Mhedzisiro yacho haingagumiri muchikamu chemagetsi chete. nitrogen mafetiraizaNyika dzine kugadzirwa kwakanyanya muGulf dzinoshandisa gasi rechisikigo dzaizoona kushaikwa kwemari yekushandisa muzvitoro. Izvi zvaizowedzera mitengo yezvinhu zvekurima uye kuwedzera kumanikidzwa kwemitengo yechikafu, zvichikonzera kusagadzikana kwezvematongerwo enyika munyika dzinonyanya kuvimba nezvinhu zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika.
Kunyangwe kana paine kukanganiswa kwechikamu, apo makambani ekutakura zvinhu anosarudza kutsausa ngarava kana apo mainishuwarenzi anobvisa mari yekuvhara yakajairika uye anobhadharisa mari yehondo, mhedzisiro yacho inoonekwa: kuderera kwekuwanikwa kwezvikepe, nzira dzakareba dzinopfuura neCape of Good Hope, muripo wekuwedzera wekutakura zvinhu uye kuwedzera kwekusagadzikana kwemusika wemangwana.
Dambudziko razvino: kuwedzera kwemauto uye maitiro emusika
Mukuwedzera kukuru kwakaitika pakupera kwaKukadzi 2026 mushure mekushanda kwemauto eUS neIsrael Epic Fury neRoaring Lion vachirwisa zvinangwa zveIran, Strait of Hormuz. yakadzokera kunzvimbo huru yekuvhundutsa pasi roseKutsiva kweIran kwaisanganisira kurwiswa kwezvivakwa nezvinangwa muQatar, UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, neSaudi Arabia.
Pakati paKurume 1 naKurume 2, 2026, zvirinani Ngarava nhatu dzekutengeserana dzakakuvara mugwara iri nekuda kwekukanganiswa kwezvibodzwa kana kuputika kunofungidzirwa, sekureva kweUK Maritime Operations Centre (UKMTO). Pakazosvika Kurume 1, mafuta aiyerera munzvimbo iyi akanga aderera ne86% zvichienzaniswa neavhareji yegore, nematangi anopfuura 700 aive mumutsetse.
Mauto eIran akatosvika pakutaura kuti mugwagwa uyu "wakavharwa," achinyevera kuti aisazobvumira ngarava dzakabatana neUnited States kana Israel kupfuura nepakati uye vachiti dzine simba rekudzivirira. "Kudzora kwakakwana" kwekoridhoKunyangwe vakazotsanangura kuti kwaisava kuvharwa kwepamutemo, maonero enjodzi akanga atokwana kuchinja zvakanyanya mashandiro ebhizinesi.
Makambani makuru ekutakura zvinhu akaita nekukurumidza. Makambani akaita seaya akaita seaya Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd kana MSC Vakazivisa kumiswa kwechinguvana kwekufambisa nepakati peStrait of Hormuz, vakaraira ngarava dzavo kuti dziende kunzvimbo dzakachengeteka, uye vakatanga kufambisa ngarava neCape of Good Hope. Panguva imwe chete, mainshuwaransi emugungwa akaongorora kana kubvisa mari yakajairika yenzvimbo iyi, vachikwidza mari yekufambisa kusvika padanho renjodzi munguva yehondo.
Mugumisiro wacho waive kukwira kwemitengo yemisika nekukurumidza: mutengo we Brent crude yakawedzera ne13%. Mumisangano yekutanga yakaitwa musi wa2 Kurume, mitengo yemafuta echisikigo muEurope yakakwira ne24%. Kunyangwe kumwe kuwedzera ikoko kwakakonzerwa nekutya kwekutanga, kushaya mukana wakajeka wekurerutsa zvirambidzo kwakaita kuti mitengo irambe iri padanho repamusoro.
Kunyangwe chiziviso chakarongeka chakaitwa nenhengo dzinoverengeka dzeOPEC+ — kusanganisira Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, neOman — chinopa kuwedzera kugadzirwa Matanho akatorwa ekugadzirisa musika haana kukwana kudzikamisa vanoisa mari. Chikonzero chiri nyore: mafuta akawanda anogona kuiswa pamusika, asi kana ngarava dzikasakwanisa kubuda nepakati peStrait of Hormuz, mafuta akawanda iwayo acharamba akavharirwa munharaunda iyi.
Basa reChina uye mikana yekudzikira kwehupfumi
Mumamiriro ezvinhu akaoma aya, China yabuda semutambi akasimbaHaisi chete nyika inotengesa mafuta asina kuchena akawanda pasi rose uye imwe yedzinotenga mafuta akawanda eIran, asi yave ichisimbisawo basa rayo semurevereri muhondo dzekuMiddle East kwemakore. Kuvharwa kwenguva refu kwemugwagwa uyu kunopesana zvakananga nezvido zvayo sesimba guru remagetsi nekutengeserana.
Saka, kudyidzana kweChina kwagara kuchikurudzira mapato ese kuti kuderedza kusagadzikana, kuona kuti kufamba-famba kwakachengeteka uye kudzivirira kukanganisa kukuru pahupfumi hwenyikaZvichakadaro, vezvenhau vepamutemo muBeijing vakatsoropodza kubatanidzwa kwemauto eUS, vachiti izvi zvinowedzera kuoma uye kukanganisa dunhu iri.
Ongororo dzakanyatsochenjerera dzinofunga nezvezviitiko zviviri zvikuru. Mukutanga, kudzikira kwehupfumi nekukurumidza—mukati memavhiki mashoma—kwaizobvumira kugadzirisa zvishoma nezvishoma traffickuderedza mari yemubhadharo wengozi uye kudzosa mitengo yemagetsi padanho riri nyore kudzora. Kukuvadzwa kwacho kwaizova kukuru, asi kwenguva pfupi.
Muchiitiko chechipiri, kana kusagadzikana kukagara kwemwedzi mumwe kusvika kumatanhatu kana kupfuura, mhedzisiro yacho inogona kunge yakakomba zvikuru: mitengo yakakwira yemafuta negesi kwenguva yakareba, kukwira kwemitengo kwakapararira muzvikamu zvakawanda zvemaindasitiri, kunyanya kumanikidzwa kwakasimba kuhupfumi huri kusimukira hunoenderana nekutengwa kwesimba kubva kunze kwenyika, uye kusawirirana kwevanhu kwakabatana nemitengo yezvinhu zvekurarama nazvo.
Zvichakadaro, Iran icharamba ichiona kutonga kwegungwa iri sechinhu chine simba, kunyange hazvo chine njodzi, muhurongwa hwayo hwedunhu, ukuwo United States nevatsigiri vayo vacharamba vachitsigira kuvapo kwavo mungarava dzemugungwa vachiti vane rusununguko rwekufamba nengarava. Kuenzana kwacho hakuna kusimba, uye chero kukanganisa kupi zvako kunogona kukonzera kukanganiswa kwakanyanya kwesimba repasi rose.
Muchidimbu, Strait of Hormuz inobatanidza zvese zvinoita kuti zvematongerwo enyika zvemazuva ano zvive zvakaoma mumakiromita mashoma: nzvimbo diki yenzvimbo, huwandu hwakawanda hwesimba, kuwanda kwemotokari, uye kusangana nguva dzose kwezvido pakati pemasimba edunhu nepasi roseChero chii chinoitika mumvura yayo, zvisinei nekuti ingave yehunyanzvi here kana kuti iri kure zvakadii, icharamba iine simba rayo pamitengo yemafuta, mabhiri emagetsi, uye kugadzikana kwehupfumi hwenyika dziri mukondinendi yega yega.
